油氣發(fā)現(xiàn)將改寫(xiě)全球政治
Evercore Partners董事長(zhǎng)、前美國(guó)財(cái)政部副部長(zhǎng) 羅杰•奧特曼 為英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》撰稿
2012年05月24日 05:55 AM
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001044696
上周末，八國(guó)集團(tuán)(G8)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人發(fā)表了一份聲明，對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)中斷的可能性發(fā)出悲觀警告。顯然，他們誤解了這個(gè)市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)檫@份聲明根本沒(méi)有抓住重點(diǎn)。
鑒于西半球非常規(guī)油氣資源的新發(fā)現(xiàn)，供應(yīng)中斷的威脅實(shí)際上在減弱。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)將降低價(jià)格和供應(yīng)的波動(dòng)性。它們還將“重置”并極大地改善國(guó)際關(guān)系。石油輸出國(guó)組織(Opec，簡(jiǎn)稱歐佩克)這個(gè)卡特爾組織的日子已經(jīng)屈指可數(shù)。局勢(shì)動(dòng)蕩的石油國(guó)家——從伊拉克到委內(nèi)瑞拉——將被邊緣化。G8發(fā)布的有關(guān)石油的聲明本應(yīng)是樂(lè)觀的。
科技帶來(lái)了能源供應(yīng)革命。先進(jìn)的地震技術(shù)和復(fù)雜的鉆探方法開(kāi)啟了以前不為人知或無(wú)法獲取的礦藏。因此，美國(guó)現(xiàn)在的天然氣供應(yīng)可以維持100年。在石油方面，美國(guó)、加拿大、巴西可能還包括墨西哥的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)都將大幅增長(zhǎng)。所有這些國(guó)家在未來(lái)20年可能會(huì)位居全球七大能源生產(chǎn)國(guó)之列。西方世界的石油產(chǎn)量自1952年以來(lái)首次有望滿足需求。
這將為更穩(wěn)定的油氣市場(chǎng)的形成做好準(zhǔn)備。市場(chǎng)將變得更龐大、更深化、更穩(wěn)固。地緣政治因素造成的供應(yīng)中斷將不會(huì)再產(chǎn)生那么大的影響，而且將變得不那么普遍。石油禁運(yùn)將不會(huì)像1973年阿拉伯國(guó)家或1979年伊朗實(shí)施的禁運(yùn)那樣造成嚴(yán)重破壞。國(guó)內(nèi)沖突(如在伊拉克和利比亞發(fā)生的沖突)引發(fā)的石油產(chǎn)量下降也將不至于產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重后果。簡(jiǎn)單來(lái)說(shuō)，穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)油國(guó)的名單將變得更長(zhǎng)，這將讓任何一個(gè)流氓國(guó)家的影響變得更為有限。
石油市場(chǎng)深化也應(yīng)意味著，中長(zhǎng)期而言，日常價(jià)格波動(dòng)將降低。畢竟，石油在交易中日益具有金融工具的特征，而全球最具深度的金融市場(chǎng)(例如美國(guó)國(guó)債)往往波動(dòng)性最小。此外，交易員成功操縱市場(chǎng)的可能性將因?yàn)槟茉词袌?chǎng)的巨大規(guī)模而減小。
這種從供應(yīng)層面解決問(wèn)題的方式，還將推動(dòng)全球政治秩序重組和改善。首先，隨著中東產(chǎn)油國(guó)的實(shí)力和重要性達(dá)到頂峰并走上下坡路，該地區(qū)在地緣政治中的核心地位將會(huì)減弱。一、二十年后，伊拉克的石油日產(chǎn)量是否會(huì)達(dá)到100萬(wàn)桶的意義并不大。只有沙特阿拉伯的石油產(chǎn)出將不可或缺。歐佩克作為一個(gè)卡特爾組織(已在衰落)的想法將走向尾聲。這將導(dǎo)致該地區(qū)的安全部署出現(xiàn)變化。
美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)部署在海灣地區(qū)的軍力(一直具有爭(zhēng)議)將減弱。美國(guó)政府在那里的唯一優(yōu)先事務(wù)將是沙特阿拉伯和以色列的穩(wěn)定，這兩個(gè)國(guó)家都已高度軍事化。另外，美國(guó)政府今后的預(yù)算緊縮將支持削減這樣的國(guó)防支出。
其次，俄羅斯等其它渴望獲得權(quán)力的石油國(guó)家在全球的影響力也將減弱。西方國(guó)家和印尼等國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量的不斷飆升，將導(dǎo)致這些國(guó)家被邊緣化。例如，隨著美國(guó)成為液化天然氣出口國(guó)，俄羅斯切斷對(duì)歐洲能源供應(yīng)的能力將減弱。這一點(diǎn)，再加上俄羅斯人口不斷減少且經(jīng)濟(jì)疲弱，將讓俄羅斯進(jìn)一步衰落。
第三，美國(guó)能源政策將越來(lái)越著重于在西半球的關(guān)系。特別的，巴西可能會(huì)成為全球最強(qiáng)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融參與者之一。這種著重很有可能會(huì)在整個(gè)美洲地區(qū)促成一個(gè)自由貿(mào)易區(qū)。
第四，中國(guó)將受到很大影響。中國(guó)的石油日進(jìn)口量預(yù)計(jì)將從400萬(wàn)桶增至1200萬(wàn)桶。中國(guó)80%的能源需求可能最終不得不依靠進(jìn)口。但中國(guó)已是中東和非洲石油的最大客戶，這些地區(qū)一直不穩(wěn)定。隨著西方對(duì)中東的保護(hù)減弱，中國(guó)將承繼美國(guó)留下的脆弱性。
二戰(zhàn)后，西方曾在能源生產(chǎn)方面引領(lǐng)世界。隨著西方石油生產(chǎn)陷入停滯，這種狀況消失了。西方的消費(fèi)量飆升，中東的產(chǎn)量增加，不穩(wěn)定性也隨之而來(lái)。能源從東方向西方輸出。如今，這種流動(dòng)即將逆轉(zhuǎn)，市場(chǎng)將會(huì)改善，G8應(yīng)該感到高興。
本文作者是Evercore Partners的董事長(zhǎng)、前美國(guó)財(cái)政部副部長(zhǎng)
Opec’s coming demise is cause for celebration
Roger Altman
Last weekend the leaders of the G8 issued a statement warning darkly of oil market disruptions. Apparently, they misunderstand this market because their statement missed the point by a wide margin.
The threat of disruptions is actually diminishing, given new finds of unconventional oil and gas in the western hemisphere. These discoveries will reduce price and supply volatility. They will also reset and profoundly improve international relations. The days of Opec, the oil producers’ cartel, are numbered. Unstable oil states, from Iraq to Venezuela, will be marginalised. The G8 statement on oil should have been optimistic.
Technology has led to a revolution in energy supply. Advanced seismic techniques and complex drilling methods have opened previously unknown or inaccessible deposits. As a result, the US now has a 100-year supply of natural gas. On the oil side, production in the US, Canada, Brazil and possibly Mexico is projected to grow sharply. All of these nations might rank among the world’s seven largest energy producers within the next 20 years. Oil production could match consumption across the western world for the first time since 1952.
This will provide for more stable oil and gas markets. They will become larger, deeper and less vulnerable. Geopolitically driven disruptions will have less impact and will be less common. No embargo, such as the one that Arab states imposed in 1973 or Iran enforced in 1979, will be severely disruptive. Nor will output losses triggered by conflicts, such as those in Iraq and Libya, have such effects. Put simply, the list of stable producers will be longer, making the impact of any rogue state more limited.
Deeper oil markets should also mean less day-to-day price volatility over the medium to long term. After all, oil is increasingly traded like a financial instrument, and the world’s deepest financial markets, such as US Treasury bonds, tend to exhibit the least volatility. Further, the potential for traders to engage successfully in manipulative behaviour will be diminished by the sheer size of the energy markets.
This supply resolution will also realign the global political order for the better. First, the geopolitical centrality of the Middle East will wane. That is because the power and relevance of its oil producers have peaked and are heading down. Whether Iraq is producing a million barrels of oil more or less is not going to mean much in 10 or 20 years. Only Saudi Arabia’s output will be indispensable. The idea of Opec as a cartel, already fading, will be over. This will lead to different security arrangements in the region.
The longstanding US military presence in the Gulf, always a lightning rod, will be reduced. Washington’s only remaining priorities there will be the stability of Saudi Arabia and Israel, both already heavily militarised. Moreover, the coming budget austerity in Washington will support such defence cuts.
Second, the global leverage of other power-hungry oil states, such as Russia, will also weaken. These nations will be marginalised by surging oil production in the west and in countries such as Indonesia. For example, Russia’s capacity to shut off energy supplies to Europe will diminish as America becomes an exporter of liquefied natural gas. This, together with its falling population and weak economy, will put Russia into further decline.
Third, US energy policy will increasingly be preoccupied with relations in the western hemisphere. Brazil, in particular, may emerge as one of the world’s strongest economic and financial players. This focus could well result in a free-trade zone throughout the Americas.
Fourth, the implications for China are serious. Its oil imports are projected to rise from 4m barrels a day to 12m b/d. The country may eventually have to import 80 per cent of its energy. But China is already the biggest customer for Middle Eastern and African oil and historically these have been unstable regions. As western protection for the Middle East diminishes, China will step into the vulnerability that the US is leaving behind.
After the second world war the west led the world in energy production. That disappeared as the west’s production stagnated. Its consumption soared and Middle East production rose, bringing instability along with it. Exports flowed from east to west. Now this flow is reversing, markets will improve and the G8 should be cheering.
The writer is chairman of Evercore Partners and a former US deputy Treasury secretary
相關(guān)文章
「 支持烏有之鄉(xiāng)！」
烏有之鄉(xiāng) WYZXWK.COM
您的打賞將用于網(wǎng)站日常運(yùn)行與維護(hù)。
幫助我們辦好網(wǎng)站，宣傳紅色文化！
歡迎掃描下方二維碼，訂閱烏有之鄉(xiāng)網(wǎng)刊微信公眾號(hào)
