Comex最大黃金交易商匆忙大規(guī)模地削減凈空頭寸

評(píng)論：Comex最大的交易商基于削減其凈空頭頭寸，以致于在一周內(nèi)削減了2.5手合約，占9.1%，導(dǎo)致金價(jià)跌去約41美元。

就在剛過(guò)去的這個(gè)交易日，黃金居然跌去46美元，博主相信凈空頭寸削減不低于2.5萬(wàn)手。據(jù)報(bào)道是因?yàn)镻IGS（歐元區(qū)葡萄牙、愛(ài)爾蘭、希臘、西班牙）主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)和美國(guó)初次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救助的人數(shù)增加造成的。

但主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)對(duì)黃金應(yīng)該是有利的，歐元區(qū)的資金應(yīng)該逃向硬資產(chǎn)黃金，美元也是岌岌可危的，美國(guó)的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)還很難說(shuō)會(huì)不會(huì)早于某些歐元區(qū)國(guó)家。

博主推測(cè)的解釋：“沃爾克法則”的銀行業(yè)改革將對(duì)全球金融市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行一次規(guī)模巨大的去杠桿化，紙黃金市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始去杠桿化。還有另外一個(gè)原因，博主將在下一篇博文里評(píng)論。

COMEX Commercials covering gold shorts

2/3/2010 12:06:03 AM | Gene Arensberg

Largest gold futures short sellers close over 25,000 contracts in one week

ATLANTA – The largest of the largest traders of gold futures on the COMEX in New York seemed to be in a hurry to reduce their net short positioning in the latest Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commitments of traders (COT) reports released Friday, January 29. 

Over the last reporting week, very large traders the CFTC classes as “commercial” reduced their collective net short positioning by a very large 25,029 contracts or 9.1% while gold fell $40.84, or 3.6%, between reporting Tuesdays.

Long-time COT-watching traders will note that is the largest one-week reduction in commercial net short positioning since the April 7, 2009 report, when the commercials covered or offset a then startling 28,703 contracts, or 16%, with gold at $881.

We’ll have more about that just below, but first, here’s this week’s closing table:

This Week’s Bottom Line Summary (in bold)

We cannot help but notice the uneasy tenor of the markets over the past two weeks.  There is no doubt there has been a flight away from risk and into “safety.”  Events in Washington and in Europe have investors, portfolio managers and traders worldwide on tenterhooks and their reaction to that nervousness has been swift with the memory of 2008 still fresh.  We note selling pressure on just about all asset classes including our favorite commodities, gold and silver.  

As everyone knows, we have been neutral on gold since our December 2, 2009 report as gold flirted with $1,200 the ounce.  We have been safely on the sidelines with the majority of our short-term gold ammunition since very late November.  That may change very shortly, depending on how the gold market behaves over the next few trading days to two weeks.  We see the gold market as once again very close to implied technical support as shown in the miniature chart just below. 

Always more volatile silver is literally AT IMPLIED SUPPORT technically speaking.  So, while silver is seen by some as vulnerable, it is also in the region where we can trade it from the long side with easily defined stops.  There are also reasonably priced hedges available for the more cautious traders among us.   

Despite material pressure on both gold and silver, we note only minimal reductions of metal holdings in gold ETFs and we even note some modest buying pressure for silver ETFs over the past week.   

Large mining shares are still underperforming gold and that is worrisome.  We will be on the lookout for when the big miners hold their ground despite gold and silver weakness, but until they do we have no choice but to respect their underperformance.  This is the main reason we have not already returned to a bullish bias for gold. 

Although shares of the largest gold and silver miners have taken a stomach punch over the past few weeks, we have been impressed with the relative outperformance of the smaller, less liquid issues on down the mining share food chain.  We believe that when the “l(fā)ittle guys” outperform the big miners it is usually a more bullish than bearish signal.     

ICE commercials remain staunchly net short the greenback as they have now for nearly two months.  They have paid dearly for that net short positioning.  The U.S. dollar has benefitted hugely from the “fear factor” over the past week, but while some of the issues hanging over the market remain (Greece, Eurozone, Washington) some have now been settled or are moderating (Bernanke, Massachusetts, Bank bashing).  It pays to remember that when the dollar index is rising, it is a measure of one sick fiat currency advancing against a basket of ailing basket cases in the huge global fiat currency leper colony.

Sooner or later more global wealth should be seeking refuge from government fiat currency IOUs - certainly in the true safe haven of gold metal and less certainly but probably in silver also.

Perhaps the most interesting change this week of all the indicators we follow closely is the very large reduction to the net short positioning by the largest gold futures traders in New York.  Since gold challenged the $1,200 level in early December, COMEX commercial traders have maintained extremely large net short positions.  This past week we saw a very large reduction in those short gold bets. 

It is somewhat rare to see commercial traders reducing their net short positioning by more than 25,000 contracts in a single reporting week.  That kind of heavy activity is usually associated with significant long liquidation and often (but not always) occurs at or near important turning points.  Such large changes are, at the very least, a call to attention for sidelined traders.  For more on this interesting development don’t miss the Gold COT section below.             

We reiterate our longer-term view that the world will most likely continue down a path of fiat currency debasement, weakening confidence in all fiat currencies.  We see the setup as long-term very bullish for gold metal and extraordinarily bullish for silver looking well ahead – if the world “holds it more or less together.”   

With China now putting the brakes on its banking system and with overly-large physical stockpiles of most base metals we suspect an overdue, much needed correction in base metals is finally underway.  We suspect that some of the risk capital coming out of those industrial metals just might migrate back into precious metals later on in Q1 of 2010. 

Therefore, we still believe harsh weakness in precious metals is to be bought rather than strength sold in Q1 2010, but we are not yet convinced the current corrective action is finished for gold.  However, our “antennae are up” given the signals we cover in this report.  Should we see the confirming signs from the other important indicators we follow closely we just might rejoin those on the long side very shortly. 

Once convinced the corrective reaction currently underway is done, we intend to redeploy into gold via ETFs, options and futures.  We may be close now to that attempt to reenter, but if we do decide to enter this coming week, it will only be with the appropriate new-trade trading or trailing stops for peace of mind and protection.  Protection against unforeseen calamity, protection of trading profits, and protection against being just plain wrong in the market.    

Trading without good stops is like skydiving without a parachute.  Neither is a very good idea for most humans and both having the potential to end badly.