溫室氣體減排：妖魔化中國(guó)的新話題

溫室氣體減排：妖魔化中國(guó)的新話題　　

氣候變暖，是否是二氧化碳排放引起的，還是一個(gè)問(wèn)題，筆者并不相信，曾在《博客中國(guó)》上轉(zhuǎn)載幾篇文章分析。就是成立，造成大氣二氧化碳濃度從100多年前290ppm升高到現(xiàn)在390ppm，也主要是西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的貢獻(xiàn)。從歷史來(lái)看，中國(guó)人均貢獻(xiàn)不到美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家?guī)资种弧，F(xiàn)實(shí)來(lái)看，中國(guó)人均排放也僅相對(duì)于美國(guó)四分之一到五分之一。即使不追究發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家歷史上向大氣排放的大量二氧化碳，也應(yīng)當(dāng)是西方首先削減二氧化碳排放，使人均排放等于中國(guó)人均水平，才有資格討論中國(guó)的減排問(wèn)題。但是，西方輿論不是這么給西方的老百姓解釋的，而是宣傳，最近幾年二氧化碳排放量增加很快，主要是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展，帶來(lái)二氧化碳排放量高速增長(zhǎng)的結(jié)果，將矛頭指向中國(guó)。其實(shí)中國(guó)人生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品，40％銷售給美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，主要為發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家服務(wù)，換回美元欠條，眼看著美元貶值，還無(wú)法使用，等于免費(fèi)奉送。老百姓當(dāng)牛做馬，累死累活，連個(gè)溫飽都談不上，中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院最新報(bào)告顯示，85％老百姓買(mǎi)不起房子。所謂的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，不過(guò)是精英們?cè)诖蹬＃垓_老百姓。由于外資在中國(guó)的資產(chǎn)還超過(guò)23000億美元，辛辛苦苦積累的23000億美元外匯儲(chǔ)備，實(shí)際還是屬于外國(guó)資本家，因?yàn)橥鈬?guó)資本家將其在中國(guó)的資產(chǎn)兌現(xiàn)，就抵消了外匯儲(chǔ)備。但是西方卻抓住精英們吹牛，大肆宣傳，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)所謂的高速發(fā)展是氣候變暖的主要禍?zhǔn)字弧！　?/p>

   此次哥本哈根會(huì)議之前，中國(guó)就高調(diào)宣布溫室氣體減排措施，到2020年單位國(guó)民產(chǎn)值排放二氧化碳降低40－45％，而美國(guó)卻不愿承諾，1997年京都協(xié)議書(shū)通過(guò)的國(guó)際協(xié)定，而是搞了一個(gè)無(wú)約束的哥本哈根協(xié)議。美國(guó)作為這個(gè)世界的黑社會(huì)老大，就是承諾了，如曾簽署了京都協(xié)議書(shū)，2002年小布什宣布作廢，各國(guó)也沒(méi)有什么辦法。但是，美國(guó)媒體卻不忘抓住哥本哈根會(huì)議妖魔化中國(guó)。筆者在紐約時(shí)報(bào)和華盛頓郵報(bào)上僅僅各看了一篇報(bào)道，就看到了西方記者精彩的妖魔化中國(guó)的文章，其中華盛頓郵報(bào)說(shuō)中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)反對(duì)確認(rèn)（削減排放），將其看成是對(duì)主權(quán)的侵犯（當(dāng)然美國(guó)是贊成的，全文附后，有多處妖魔化中國(guó)的評(píng)述）。新加坡聯(lián)合早報(bào)也加入到妖魔化中國(guó)的大合唱，說(shuō)：設(shè)定減排年限是先進(jìn)國(guó)的要求，但遭到中國(guó)的強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)。　　

    西方要求中國(guó)參加減排，其根本目的，并不在于中國(guó)減排多少，而是非常在意監(jiān)控中國(guó)減排，從而讓中國(guó)重蹈伊拉克的覆轍。中國(guó)一天不上套，這個(gè)扯皮會(huì)就不會(huì)結(jié)束。哥本哈根協(xié)議成功地讓中國(guó)在這個(gè)方向上前進(jìn)了一步（答應(yīng)減排，同時(shí)答應(yīng)交流通報(bào)減排措施，筆者另文分析其后果）。下面且看西方媒體的表演：　　

紐約時(shí)報(bào)　　

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/12/05/world/climate-graphic-players.html　　

China　　

China, with the world’s largest population and largest emissions of greenhouse gases, could be viewed as one of two 800-pound gorillas in the room, with the United States. A developing nation, China has refused to accept firm limits on its emissions but has instead proposed a “carbon intensity” target, reducing its emissions per dollar of economic output by 40 to 45% by 2020.　　

中國(guó)是世界上人口最多的國(guó)家和排放溫室氣體最多的國(guó)家，可以看成是房間中兩個(gè)800磅大猩猩中的一個(gè)，另一個(gè)是美國(guó)。作為發(fā)展中國(guó)家，中國(guó)拒絕接受確實(shí)的排放限制，而是提出了一個(gè)所謂“碳強(qiáng)度”目標(biāo)，到2020年減少每美元經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出所排放的40－45％　　

United States　　

The other 800-pound gorilla, the United States ranks among the biggest emitters of carbon dioxide per capita of any large country. (Certain small countries like Qatar emit more per person.) With the Senate unable to pass climate legislation before the Copenhagen meeting, the Obama administration will be limited in what it can offer. Yet President Obama has signaled a greater willingness to cooperate with international efforts to reduce emissions than his predecessor, George W. Bush　　

另一個(gè)800磅大猩猩，美國(guó)是大國(guó)中人均排放二氧化碳最多國(guó)家（還有一些小國(guó)，如卡塔爾人均排放更多）。由于在哥本哈根會(huì)議之前，參議院沒(méi)有通過(guò)氣候法案，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)所能采取的措施有限，但是奧巴馬總統(tǒng)簽署了一個(gè)同國(guó)家社會(huì)合作減少排放的協(xié)議，比其前任布什總統(tǒng)前進(jìn)了一大步。　　

新加坡聯(lián)合早報(bào)：http://www.zaobao.com/gj/gj091220_001_1.shtml　　

《哥本哈根協(xié)議》也并未列明各國(guó)的減排目標(biāo)，支持協(xié)議的國(guó)家只承諾把全球暖化的幅度限制在攝氏2度。設(shè)定減排年限是先進(jìn)國(guó)的要求，但遭到中國(guó)的強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)。　　

但《哥本哈根協(xié)議》倒是詳細(xì)列出了富國(guó)會(huì)給予窮國(guó)的援助數(shù)額，以協(xié)助它們應(yīng)付氣候變化所造成的海平面上升、水災(zāi)、旱災(zāi)、風(fēng)暴等。富國(guó)承諾在2010至2012年之間，提供300億美元的援助，其中110億美元來(lái)自日本、106億美元來(lái)自歐洲聯(lián)盟、36億美元來(lái)自美國(guó)。各國(guó)還定下到了2020年援助數(shù)額達(dá)1000億美元的長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)。　　

奧巴馬同四個(gè)發(fā)展中大國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人會(huì)談后曾說(shuō)，此項(xiàng)協(xié)議是一個(gè)起點(diǎn)。他說(shuō)：“這樣的進(jìn)度得來(lái)不易，但我們也知道，單有這樣的進(jìn)度是不足夠的。”他也強(qiáng)稱協(xié)議提供了日后加強(qiáng)對(duì)抗氣候變化的工具，算是取得“空前突破”。　　

華盛頓郵報(bào)　　

Copenhagen climate deal shows new world order may be led by U.S., China 　　

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/19/AR2009121900687.html　　

By Anthony Faiola, Juliet Eilperin and John Pomfret　　

Sunday, December 20, 2009 　　

COPENHAGEN -- If the talks that resulted in an imperfect deal to combat global warming provided anything, it was a glimpse into a new world order in which international diplomacy will increasingly be shaped by the United States and emerging powers, most notably China. 　　

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　 　 　　 Friday's agreement, sources involved in the talks said, boiled down to President Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao personally hammering out a pact both could live with, even if many other leaders could not. Wen even squelched his own negotiator's protests. 　　

What Obama heralded as a "breakthrough" -- after getting India and other rising powers to sign on -- was decried by some nations as too little, too late. The leaders of Europe, Japan and other countries at the summit were largely left to rubber-stamp the deal. The Swedish prime minister's office dubbed it "a disaster." 　　

Ever since the concept of a G2was proposed this year by former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, the idea that the United States and China together are going to solve all the world's problems has been pooh-poohed by both American and Chinese officials. China hated the notion because it put too much responsibility on a country that has done very well rising in the shadows. Many U.S. officials opposed the idea on the grounds that the best way to influence China was through multinational partnerships. 　　

So, more than anything else, critics said, Friday's climate agreement reflected the domestic political realities in Washington and Beijing. Both nations, the two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, remain more cautious than, say, the governments of Europe about establishing a strict set of international rules to combat global warming. Not coincidentally, the agreement allows nations to set their own emission reduction targets and provides no deadline for signing a binding international accord. 　　

A shifting relationship

　　

As such, the deal may portend how issues from world trade to nuclear proliferation will be negotiated in the years ahead, with China leading a caucus of rising powers on one side and the United States on the other. 　　

"The mark is being stamped on a new political world," said Duncan Marsh, who directs international climate policy for the Nature Conservancy. Said Jake Schmidt, international climate policy director for the Natural Resources Defense Fund: "Coming into this conference, it was about 193 countries, and coming out of it, it clearly came down to a conversation between the leaders of those two superpowers." 　　

Orville Schell, a longtime China watcher who is director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society, said the erratic dance between China and the United States is another example of how the bilateral relationship is at a tipping point. China is becoming a major player, albeit reluctantly; the United States, with similar unease, is making room for China at the table of world leaders. 　　

"We're not exactly partners, but we're much more equals," Schell said. "The Chinese miss the idea that there's some grander, stronger authority. They are not used to this role of actually helping to fashion and form things." 　　

Indeed, the events at the summit showed how the U.S.-China relationship remains stormy and complex, constructive and adversarial. At one point in Friday's tense talks, for instance, China's top climate change negotiator exploded in rage at U.S. pressure after Obama walked in on the Chinese while they were holding talks with the Indians, South Africans and Brazilians. After Obama asked whether the Chinese could commit to listing their climate targets in an international registry, Xie Zhenhua launched into a tirade, pointing his finger at the U.S. president. 　　

A compromise from China

　　

The United States had made any deal contingent on international verification of emission cuts made by nations, seeing it as key to winning over skeptical lawmakers on Capitol Hill who are still resistant to sweeping climate change legislation at home. But there was no way China would agree to international verification, Xie told the Americans. 　　

It was a position that China had held to closely over months of negotiations with the United States and other countries. China's vice minister of foreign affairs, He Yafei, had reiterated it just hours earlier. 　　

But this time, something different happened, according to Chinese and Western sources close to the talks. Wen instructed his Chinese interpreter not to translate Xie's fiery remarks. When Xie erupted again, Wen, who was chairing the meeting, ignored him. After Wen handed Obama a draft text of an agreement that included verification language Obama couldn't abide by, the two men led a lengthy debate that ended in a working compromise, sources said. 　　

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　 　 　　 China has a long history of opposing verification, seeing it as a violation of its sovereignty（中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)反對(duì)確認(rèn)（排放削減），將其看成是對(duì)其主權(quán)的侵犯）. It has also used the sovereignty argument as a way to cover up for failures or weaknesses. When China tracked air pollution in Beijing in the run-up to the 2008 Summer Olympics, for instance, authorities in the capital moved monitoring stations into areas with less congestion to get positive ratings. When the U.S. Embassy in Beijing established an air-quality monitoring site on its grounds -- and began sending pollution readings out on Twitter -- the Chinese took umbrage and implied that the action was an interference in their country's internal affairs. Twitter later was blocked nationwide. 　　

But on Friday, Wen ultimately agreed to stronger verification language. By the nature of the agreement, however, China's participation will be voluntary. 　　

The fate of any future global climate change treaty will now effectively rest in the hands of the two largest emitters. For at least the next several years, the lack of a binding international treaty may result in a piecemeal response to the problem, with action being taken largely on a national and regional level. 　　

Yet proponents of the Copenhagen agreement stress that the Obama administration is taking unprecedented action at home, pushing for a national switch to green energy and for a cap-and-trade system that could help dramatically curb emissions. 　　

Wen, according to several Americans who have interacted with him on this issue, is also passionate about climate change. He chairs a high-level Communist Party group on climate change, which sets policy and makes major decisions. 　　

In addition, Ken Lieberthal, a former senior director for Asia at the National Security Council who is now a China expert at the Brookings Institution, said that for China to even tentatively agree on an international verification regime and on the necessity of registering its climate goals marks substantive movement. 　　

"Of course you could say, 'It's just words; they won't do anything,' " Lieberthal said. "But words matter internationally. You can hold people to their words and shame them if they don't comply." 　　

Pomfret reported from Washington.

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