若看西方主流媒體，便會得出這樣的結論：中國已成為經濟超級大國，正一心以大規模軍備競賽來展示自己的軍事實力。當選主席習近平剛剛接任前任主席胡錦濤，成為共產黨總書記兼中央軍委主席，進而取得了對黨和軍隊的全面領導。
英國廣播公司(BBC)近期發表了一篇題為《中國擴展軍事力量》的文章，正體現了西方媒體報道中國軍事計劃的典型方式。分析指出：“中國第一艘航母將在今年晚些時候開始試航。去年年底，北京新型“隱形”戰斗機樣機的照片首次被曝光。此外，美國軍事專家認為，中國已開始部署世界上第一種能夠擊中海上移動艦船的遠程彈道導彈。”【1】
在日本，極富政治野心的右翼民族主義政客東京都知事石原慎太郎和大阪府知事橋下徹，以宣揚反華言論正在贏得公眾的支持，聲稱日本必須發展本國實力來對抗中國軍事優勢。今年五月，權威報紙《紐約時報》刊登了一篇聳人聽聞的報道，造成了對中國宣布軍費開支要保持兩位數增長的誤解。事實上，文章只是提到了中國將在去年的軍費預算基礎上增加11%，這一數字甚至遠遠低于通貨膨脹率。
然而，當我們仔細觀察奧巴馬總統宣布“重返亞太戰略”后美國軍隊在亞洲地區的軍事行動時，便可清楚地看到，這并非是中國主動采取攻勢。中國只是針對美國做出回應，以消除將來對中國主權構成真正威脅的隱患。
事實很簡單，美國在任總統奧巴馬在總統大選電視辯論中將中國列為“敵對國”，清楚地表明了美國軍事重心的轉變。從美國近期在亞洲的導彈防御部署便可知其目標旨在中國，別無其他。美國以中國為軸心的本質顯而易見。
根據官方數據，中國軍費約為900億美元，僅占美國軍費開支的10%。如果將國防相關的武器進口和其他相關開支計算在內，則軍費大概在一年1110億美元左右。即使中國當局在這些敏感領域未公布其完備數據，其與美國相比仍明顯微不足道，更何況中國的軍事技術起步基礎還遠遠落后于美國。
美國國防預算是目前世界上最多的，遠遠高于其他國家，因此完全不會受到任何軍事威脅。19世紀，英國皇家海軍按照其兩大潛在勁敵的艦隊規模，建造了自己的艦隊;如今，美國的國防預算戰略家宣布，一旦美國所建的海軍不敵中國海軍和俄羅斯海軍總和的五倍，那么對美國來說，便意味著世界末日的到來。【2】
我們不妨將中國在上合組織中最強盟國俄羅斯的軍費支出也計算進來，得到的年度軍費支出總額也才不過1420億美元。世界軍費支出最多的前十個國家，除美國第一，中國第二外，還包括英國、法國、日本、俄羅斯、沙特阿拉伯、德國、印度以及巴西。美國2011年的軍事支出總額竟達到了全球171個國家和地區支出總和的46%，幾乎占據了全世界軍費支出的一半。【3】
顯然，盡管美國在全世界大談維和使命，推動“民主”進程，但美國追求的卻是“全方位主導”地位，即全面控制全球陸、海、空、太空、外太空及現在的賽博空間。【4】無疑，美國已決定以自己的軍事實力來確保其在全球的霸權地位。沒有其他可能的解釋了。
且不說今日中國充滿活力的經濟和維護國家利益的決心，僅僅因為中國的存在就足以使她成為五角大樓的新“假想敵”，取代了911事件后由布什-切尼政府為追求全球霸權做辯護而樹立的“假想敵”——伊斯蘭。
在忽略美國在東亞的利益近20年后，奧巴馬政府于2011年宣布，美國將其外交政策的“戰略軸心”，在軍事上和政治上轉向亞太地區，尤其是東南亞地區，即中國。
“奧巴馬主義”與亞洲彈道導彈防御系統
到目前為止，“中國軸心”戰略初期的關鍵在于建立包圍中國的大規模反導防御圈，從而消除中國發動核攻擊的潛在可能。在伊拉克和阿富汗的軍事行動失敗后，奧巴馬政府于2011年底明確公開定義了新的軍事威脅。在訪問遠東期間，美國總統在澳大利亞將奧巴馬主義公諸于眾。【5】
以下是奧巴馬在澳大利亞演講的相關節選：
“亞洲擁有世界上絕大多數的有核國家和約全球一半的人口，這很大程度上決定了未來的世界是一個沖突的世紀還是相互協作的世紀……因此，作為總統，我審慎地做出了戰略決策——……美國在塑造亞太地區上將發揮更加重要和長期的作用……我已指示我的國家安全團隊優先考慮在亞太地區建立我們的軍事存在……我們將保持我們在該地區特有的威懾力，確保消除對和平構成的威脅……美國是太平洋國家，這意味著我們在這里必須加強部署。事實上，我們已經在整個亞太地區著手現代化美國的防衛。……我們可以預見美國未來在澳大利亞的防衛態勢……我相信我們可以應對我們共同的挑戰，如武器擴散和包括中國南海合作問題在內的海事安全問題。【6】
2012年8月24日，紐約《華爾街日報》報道稱，奧巴馬政府將拓寬其在亞太地區的導彈防御屏障(BMD)，以此作為最新宣布的“中國軸心”政策的一部分。【7】
美國官方對其在亞洲舞臺上部署彈道導彈防御系統給出的理由是，保護日韓及美國在亞洲地區的其他盟國不受朝鮮核導彈的攻擊。這種說法根本經不起推敲。
事實上，大量報道顯示，美國已決定利用日韓澳建立大型彈道導彈防御網，其真正目標并非朝鮮，而是亞洲地區唯一一個具有遠程發射能力的潛在核威脅國家——中國。全面控制中國的未來發展趨勢是美國新軍事戰略必要的一部分。
此外，從日本政府適時挑起中日釣魚島爭端一事，同樣可以看出美國彈道導彈防御系統的進攻意圖。釣魚島位于中國東海，據信該地區擁有龐大的天然氣儲備。【8】
日本導彈防御的關鍵
2012年9月，美國防部長萊昂•帕內塔(Leon Panetta)宣布，美日雙方就在日本領土部署另一先進的大型導彈防御雷達達成重大協議。【9】帕內塔在聲明中宣稱：“美國此舉的目的在于加強日本的防御能力，同時加強美國軍隊的前沿部署，進而有效保護美國本土不會受到來自朝鮮彈道導彈的威脅。”【10】我們只要看一看地圖上帕內塔所說的部署核武器的位置，便可知道，中國導彈發射場就在朝鮮邊境，剛好在美日新彈道導彈防御系統的射程范圍之內。
美國在很久以前就已決定要在日本部署先進的彈道導彈防御系統，作為其全球軍事霸權戰略的必要組成部分。2003年12月19日，日本政府發布內閣決定——《引進彈道導彈防御系統及其他措施》，標志著日本正式決定與美國合作建立彈道導彈防御系統。自此，建立健全的導彈防御系統便成為了日本國家安全的重中之重。
根據日本現任政府對日本憲法第九條的解讀，日本不得實施集體自衛權，利用導彈防御能力對第三方國家提供防衛——即便是像美國這樣的盟國也是明文禁止的。極有可能在今年12月16日的眾議院選舉中當選總理的自民黨領導人安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)，強烈支持建立彈道導彈防御系統和修改憲法第九條。這就意味著，日本將發生重大轉變，擺出更為好斗的反華軍事姿態。【11】
據美國軍事新聞報道，日本彈道導彈防御新計劃最重要的特征在于配備了由美國雷神公司研發的強大的預警雷達，即X波段雷達(X-band)。該雷達為“大型相控陣火控傳感器，以精密鑒別且支持攔截機為特色”，它旨在對抗“流氓國家”的威脅，并將部署在日本南部某島嶼。【12】
日本防衛大臣森本•敏證實，日本與美國就導彈防御問題，包括如何部署美國的X波段雷達系統進行過多次討論。【13】自2006年以來，日本已在其北部轄區青森縣部署了一部X波段雷達。此舉遭到了青森縣居民的強烈反對，因為雷達的出現將使當地居民成為潛在敵人發動進攻的目標。【14】
亞洲地區彈道導彈防御體系
美國優先在亞洲地區部署彈道導彈防御系統的對象不僅包括日本，其還在幫助印度完善印度的新導彈防御系統。印度希望在美國的幫助下建立多層導彈防御網，名義上是為防御巴基斯坦，而私底下卻是針對中國。今年早些時候，印度試驗發射了烈火V(Agni-V)中程彈道導彈，其國內新聞公開報道稱，該導彈的最重要特征在于能夠打擊中國的任何地方。【15】
華盛頓國會研究服務部(WCRS)導彈防御專家斯蒂芬•希爾德雷思(Steven Hildreth)表示，美國正在為建立亞洲地區范圍內的導彈防御系統奠定基礎，該防御系統為美國與亞洲國家，尤其是與日本、韓國和澳大利亞共同建立的彈道導彈防御系統。希爾德雷思還指出，此舉的假定目標在于遏制朝鮮的導彈威脅，“可實際情況是我們還從長遠角度關注房間里的大象，也就是中國”。據《華爾街日報》報道，X波段雷達圓弧除防御朝鮮威脅外，還將允許美國深入窺視中國。
此外，幾位未提及姓名的美國國防部官員稱，美國軍方將在菲律賓部署第三部X波段雷達，從而使得美國能夠準確地跟蹤朝鮮和中國大部分地區發射的彈道導彈。【17】
除日本外，美國還邀請了韓國和澳大利亞加入亞洲彈道導彈防御計劃。中國官方英文報刊《環球時報》指出，“在所有有核國家中，中國不僅是擁有核武器數量最少的國家，也是唯一一個承諾‘不首先使用核武器’的國家。在亞洲部署導彈防御系統是對中國核政府的不尊重。”
《環球時報》還進一步指出：“日韓澳如果都加入美國防御系統，亞洲很可能出現惡性軍備競賽。中國并不希望看到這類事情的發生，但軍備競賽一旦出現，中國只好應對。美國在給亞洲制造動蕩，可能在未來激化更多的沖突，中國應盡其所能防止事態惡化，同時也應做好最壞的打算。”【18】
彈道導彈防御系統鼓勵發動首次核攻擊
布什政府和奧巴馬政府決定先在波蘭、捷克共和國和土耳其建立包圍俄羅斯的彈道導彈環形防御圈，以防御俄羅斯的洲際彈道導彈。隨后，提出了美國的亞洲彈道導彈防御策略。美國著名退役軍官曾警告過，針對潛在核對手部署彈道導彈防御系統，無論是針對俄羅斯、中國、朝鮮還是伊朗，從嚴格的軍事戰略意義上說，都是瘋狂的舉動。
哪怕只是擁有一個初步的導彈防御屏障，美國便能向俄羅斯或中國的導彈發射井和潛艇艦隊發動第一次導彈攻擊，且絲毫不用擔心遭到有效反攻，因為俄羅斯或中國所剩無幾的核導彈根本無法做出具有足夠破壞力的回應。
冷戰期間，由于華約和北約擁有相互毀滅的能力，雙方進入了軍事戰略家所稱的恐核制衡狀態，即確保相互毀滅以達到相互制約(MAD)。盡管局勢令人害怕，但奇怪的是，當時的情況卻比如今美國單方尋求核主導地位更加穩定。恐核制衡是基于雙方核能力相當、開戰任何一方都沒有勝算的前景下形成的，也因此，核戰爭在當時是無法想象的。
而今，美國在歐洲建立針對俄羅斯的彈道導彈防御系統，在亞洲建立針對中國的彈道導彈防御系統，是在尋求發動核戰爭的可能性。這簡直是瘋了。。
第一個擁有彈道導彈防御屏障(BMD)的國家實際上便擁有了發動第一次攻擊的能力，從而使得彈道導彈防御屏障不再是防御性的，而是極具攻擊性。羅伯特•鮑曼中校在里根總統時期擔任美國空軍導彈防御計劃負責人，他最近將導彈防御系統稱為“發動首次攻擊所缺少的一環。”【19】BMD為發動首次核攻擊提供了動機，這在以往是難以想象的，因為發動攻擊的國家無法確定本國是否會遭到核放射性的摧毀，成為一片廢墟。在軍事意義上，彈道導彈防御系統其實是進攻性的，與其名稱中的“防御”剛好相反，它的正確命名應該是“彈道導彈攻擊系統”。
鮑曼進一步提到：
“在里根和老布什任內，這個機構是戰略防御倡議局(SDIO);在克林頓任內，變成了彈道導彈防御局。現在小布什把這個機構重新命名為導彈防御局 (MDA)，給了它免于監督的自由，在以前只有“黑計劃”(即不公開的軍事計劃，主要指秘密武器裝備研制計劃)才有這個權利。如果國會不迅速采取行動，這個新的獨立機構可能會實質性地獲得無限制的預算，并把這些錢花在不受公眾和國會監督的武器上，在這些武器部署到空間之前我們根本不知道都是些什么東西。理論上，屆時空間戰士將統治世界，能夠在不進行預先警告的情況下摧毀地球上的任何目標。”【20】
美國在亞洲進行彈道導彈防御系統的重大部署，很有可能是中共十八大會議突然決定推遲到美國大選結束后的主要原因，以此中國便可明確其將面臨的是羅姆尼總統還是奧巴馬總統。在奧巴馬首次公開其“亞洲軸心”和“奧巴馬主義”以來的幾個月里，美國所做出的軍事決定正是導致中國越來越擔心奧巴馬“戰略軸心”的原因所在。
注：
[1] Jonathan Marcus, China extending military reach, 14 June 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13761711
[2] Winslow Wheeler, The Military Imbalance: How The US Outspends the World, March 16, 2012, accessed in http://www.iiss.org/publications/military-balance/the-military-balance-2012/press-statement/figure-comparative-defence-statistics/.
[3] Ibid.
[4] F. William Engdahl, Full Spectrum Dominance: Totalitarian Democracy in the New World Order, 2010, edition.engdahl,Wiesbaden.
[5] President Barack Obama, Remarks By President Obama to the Australian Parliament, November 17, 2011, accessed in http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australian-parliament.
[6] Ibid.
[7]Brian Spegele et al, US Missile Shield Plan Seen Stoking China Fears, The Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2012, accessed in http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444082904577609054116070694.html.
[8] Kazunori Takada, Japanese firms shut China plants, US urges calm in islands row, Reuters, September 17, 2012, accessed in http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/17/uk-china-japan-idUSLNE88G01A20120917.
[9] Thom Shanker and Ian Johnson, US Accord With Japan Over Missile Defense Draws Criticism in China, The New York Times, September 17, 2012, accessed in http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/world/asia/u-s-and-japan-agree-on-missile-defense-system.html?pagewanted=all
[10] Chris Carroll, US, Japan Announce Expanded Missile Defense System, September 17, 2012, Stars and Stripes, accessed in http://www.military.com/daily-news/2012/09/17/us-japan-announce-expanded-missile-defense-system.html
[11] Masako Toki, Missile defense in Japan, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 16 January 2009, accessed in http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/missile-defense-japan
[12] RT, Shield revealed US spreads missile defenses East, Russia Today, 24 August, 2012, accessed in http://rt.com/news/us-missile-defense-asia-432/.
[13] Brian Spegele, et al, US Missile Shield Plan Seen Stoking China Fears, Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2012, accessed in http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444082904577609054116070694.html
[14] Ibid.
[15] Trefor Moss, Asia’s New Arms Race: Missiles, Missile Defenses, August 27, 2012, accessed in http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/08/27/asias-new-arms-race-missiles-missile-defenses/.
[16] RT, op. cit.
[17] Brian Spegele, op. cit.
[18] Global Times, US missile shield fosters Asian arms race, Beijing, Global Times, March 29, 2012, accessed in http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/702623/US-missile-shield-fosters-Asian-arms-race.aspx.
[19] F. William Engdahl, Full Spectrum Dominance: Totalitarian Democracy in the New World Order, edition.engdahl,Wiesbaden, 2009, p. 162.
[20] Ibid., p. 161.
原文鏈接：http://www.globalresearch.ca/no-wonder-china-is-nervous-as-obama-pivots/5312523
附原文：
China a Military Threat? No Wonder China is Nervous as Obama Pivots
By F. William Engdahl
Global Research, November 21, 2012
Region: Asia
Theme: Militarization and WMD
To read the mainstream Western media, one would conclude that China has become an economic giant now intent on flexing its military muscle and making a massive arms buildup to do so. China’s designated new President, Xi Jinping, has just won both the top Communist party post from predecessor Hu Jintao as well as the head of the powerful Central Military Commission, giving Xi a full takeover of party and armed forces.
A recent BBC analysis, in an article titled “China extending military reach,” is typical of Western media coverage of China’s military program: “China‘s first aircraft carrier will begin sea trials later this year. Late last year, the first pictures were leaked of the prototype of Beijing‘s new “stealth” fighter. And US military experts believe that China has begun to deploy the world’s first long-range ballistic missile capable of hitting a moving ship at sea.“ [1]
In Japan, nationalist politicians like politically ambitious Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara and Toru Hashimoto, the mayor of Osaka, are gaining popularity with anti-China rhetoric and by claiming Japan must develop capacities to oppose Chinese military ascendency. In May the authoritative New York Times ran an alarming story to the effect that China announced a “double-digit increase” in military spending. In the actual text of the article they report an 11% increase over the previous budget, far less than even the rate of inflation.
However, when we examine in detail the actual redeployment and military moves of US Armed Forces in the Asia region following President Obama’s announcement of a new “Asia Pivot” refocus of US military capacities from Western Europe to the Asia region, it becomes clear China is re-acting, in order to attempt to deal with quite real threats to its future sovereignty rather than acting in an aggressive posture.
The mere fact that a standing President, Obama, during nationally televised Presidential debates labeled China as an “adversary” is indicative of the US military posture change. The depth and nature of the US pivot to China is crystal clear when one takes a closer look at the recent developments in an Asian US Missile Defense deployment, clearly aimed at China and no other.
China officially spent barely 10% of what the US does on its defense, some $90 billion, or if certain defense-related arms import and other costs are included, perhaps $111 billion a year. Even if the Chinese authorities do not publish complete data on such sensitive areas, it’s clear China spends a mere fraction of the USA and is starting from a military-technology base far behind the USA.
The US defense budget is not just by far the world’s largest. It dominates everyone else, completely independent of any perceived threat. In the nineteenth century, the British Royal Navy built the size of its fleet according to the fleets of Britain’s two most powerful potential enemies; America’s defense budget strategists declare it will be “doomsday” if the United States builds its navy to anything less than five times that of China and Russia combined.[2]
If we include the spending by Russia, China’s strongest ally within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, their combined total annual defense spending is barely $142 billion. The world’s ten top defense spending nations in addition to the USA as largest, and China as second largest, include the UK, France, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Indiaand Brazil. In 2011 the military spending of the United States totaled a staggering 46% of total spending by the world’s 171 governments and territories, almost half the entire world. [3]
Clearly, for all its rhetoric about peace-keeping missions and “democracy” promotion, the Pentagon is pursuing what its planners refer to as “Full Spectrum Dominance,” the total control of all global air, land, ocean, space, outer-space and now cyberspace.[4] It is clearly determined to use its military might to secure global domination or hegemony. No other interpretation is possible.
China today, because of its dynamic economic growth and its determination to pursue sovereign Chinese national interests, merely because China exists, is becoming the Pentagon new “enemy image,” or adversary, now replacing the no longer useful “enemy image” of Islam used after September 2001 by the Bush-Cheney Administration to justify the Pentagon’s global power pursuit.
After almost two decades of neglect of its interests in East Asia, in 2011, the Obama Administration announced that the US would make “a strategic pivot” in its foreign policy to focus its military and political attention on the Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, that is, China.
‘Obama Doctrine’ and Asian BMD
To date the heart of the initial stages of the China Pivot involve building a massive anti-Ballistic Missile Defense ring around Chinato neutralize China’s nuclear strike potential. During the final months of 2011 the Obama Administration clearly defined a new public military threat doctrine for US military readiness in the wake of the US military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. During a Presidential trip to the Far East, while in Australia, the US President unveiled what is being termed the Obama Doctrine.[5]
The following sections from Obama’s speech in Australia are worth citing in detail:
With most of the world’s nuclear power and some half of humanity, Asia will largely define whether the century ahead will be marked by conflict or cooperation…As President, I have, therefore, made a deliberate and strategic decision — …the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future…I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia Pacific a top priority… We will preserve our unique ability to project power and deter threats to peace…The United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay. Indeed, we are already modernizing America’s defense posture across the Asia Pacific. ..We see our new posture here in Australia…I believe we can address shared challenges, such as proliferation and maritime security, including cooperation in the South China Sea.[6]
On August 24, 2012the New York Wall Street Journal reported that the Obama Administration as part of its newly-announced policy of China Pivot, will expand its missile-defense shield, Ballistic Missile Defense or BMD as it is known in the military, in the Asia-Pacific region. [7]
The official reason given by the Pentagon for its new BMD deployment to the Asian theater is to protect Japan, South Korea and other US allied countries in the region against a North Korean nuclear missile attack. That argument doesn’t stand close scrutiny.
In reality, according to numerous reports, Washington has decided to invest in a major Ballistic Missile Defense network using Japan, South Korea and Australia. The real target of the BMD system is not North Korea, but rather the Peoples’ Republic of China, the only power in the region possessing even a potential nuclear threat with serious long-range delivery capabilities. It is part of the new Pentagon strategy of imposing full control over the future development of China.
The Washington BMD offensive has to be viewed as well in the light of the well-timed Japanese government decision to deliberately provoke tension with China over the disputed Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, a region believed to be vastly rich in natural gas reserves.[8]
Part III: Japan Missile Defense Key
In September 2012, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced that the United Statesand Japan had reached a major agreement to deploy a second major advanced missile-defense radar on Japanese territory.[9] In his announcement Panetta declared, “The purpose of this is to enhance our ability to defend Japan. It’s also designed to help forward-deployed US forces and it also will be effective in protecting the US homeland from the North Korean ballistic missile threat.”[10] A glance at the map shows the nuclear holes in Panetta’s statement. Chinese missile sites are just across the Korean border, well in range of the US-Japan new BMD installation.
The Washington decision to place advanced BMD infrastructure in Japan was made long ago as part of a US strategy of global military dominance. The BMD cooperation with Japan began in earnest on December 19, 2003, when the Japanese government issued the cabinet decision “On Introduction of Ballistic Missile Defense System and Other Measures.” Ever since, establishing a robust missile defense system has been a Japan national security priority.
Under the current Japanese government’s interpretation of Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution, Japan’s participation in collective self-defense is prohibited, as is using missile defense capabilities to defend a third country–even an ally such as the United States. Shinzo Abe, head of the Liberal Democratic Party, almost certain to become Prime Minister after the December 16 Lower House elections, is a strong advocate of BMD and of changing Article 9. That means we can expect a major shift to a more militant anti-China military posture from Tokyo. [11]
According to US military press accounts, the most important feature of the new Japanese BMD project will be installation of a powerful early-warning radar, ‘X-band’, made by Raytheon Co. It’s “a large, phased-array fire control sensor, featuring precision discrimination and interceptor support,” designed to counter threats from ‘rogue states.’ It will be installed on an unnamed southern Japanese island.[12]
Japan’s defense minister Satoshi Morimoto confirmed that Tokyo and Washington “have had various discussions over missile defenses, including how to deploy the US’s X-Band radar system.” [13] Japan already hosts one X-Band radar in the northern prefecture of Aomori, since 2006. It’s heavily opposed by local residents who fear, not without good reason, that the presence of the radar makes them a target for potential enemy attacks.[14]
BMD across Asia
The US move to prioritize its BMD installation in Asia involves not only Japan. Washington is also helping India improve its new missile defense system. The Indians want to build a multi-layer missile defense network with US help. Publicly India’s government cites Pakistan as the reason. Privately, it’s China. India test-fired its Agni-V intermediate range ballistic missile earlier this year and the Indian press openly cited the system’s ability to strike anywhere in China as the most important feature.[15]
According to Steven Hildreth, a missile-defense expert with the Washington Congressional Research Service, the USA is “laying the foundations” for a region-wide missile defense system that would consist of US ballistic missile defenses combined with those of regional powers, particularly Japan, South Korea and Australia. Although supposedly aimed at containing threats from North Korea, Hildreth also stated, “the reality is that we’re also looking longer term at the elephant in the room, which is China.” According to a report in the Wall Street Journal the X-band arc would allow the US to ‘peer deeper’ into China, in addition to North Korea. [16]
As well, there are reports from unnamed US Defense Department officials that a third X-Band radar would be positioned in the Philippines, allowing the Pentagon to accurately track ballistic missiles launched from North Korea but also from large parts of China.[17]
In addition to Japan, Washington has invited South Korea and Australia to join the Asian BMD program. The official Chinese English language daily, Global Times, pointed out, “Among the nuclear powers, China has the smallest number of nuclear weapons. It is also the only country to make a ‘no first use’ commitment. Installing a missile defense system in Asia disrespects China’s nuclear policy.”
The Global Times article notes further, “If Japan, South Korea and Australia join the system, a vicious arms race in Asia may follow. It is not what China wants to see, but it will have to deal with it if the arms race happens. The US is creating waves in Asia. The region may see more conflicts intensify in the future. China should make utmost efforts to prevent it, but prepare for the worst.” [18]
Part V: BMD encourages Nuclear First Strike
The US BMD strategy in Asia follows a decision by the Bush and Obama Administrations to first deploy BMD in a ring surrounding Russia with installations in Poland, the Czech Republic andTurkey, aimed at Russia’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missile arsenal. As prominent retired US military officers have warned, deploying Ballistic Missile Defense against a potential nuclear opponent, whether Russia or China or North Korea or Iran is madness in strict military strategy terms.
With even a primitive missile defense shield, the US could launch a first strike attack against Russian or Chinese missile silos and submarine fleets with less fear of effective retaliation; the few remaining Russian or Chinese nuclear missiles would be unable to launch a response sufficiently destructive.
During the Cold War, the ability of the Warsaw Pact and NATO to mutually annihilate one another had led to a nuclear stalemate dubbed by military strategists, MAD—Mutually Assured Destruction. It was scary but, in a bizarre sense, more stable than what would come with a unilateral US pursuit of nuclear primacy. MAD was based on the prospect of mutual nuclear annihilation with no decisive advantage for either side; it led to a world in which nuclear war had been ‘unthinkable.’
Now the US, with BMD in Europe against Russia and in Asia against China, is pursuing the possibility of nuclear war as ‘thinkable.’ That is really and truly ‘mad.’
The first nation with a ballistic missile ‘defense’ shield (BMD) would de facto have ‘first strike ability,’ making BMD not defensive but offensive in the extreme. Lt. Colonel Robert Bowman, Director of the US Air Force Missile Defense Program during the Reagan era, recently called missile defense, “the missing link to a First Strike.” [19] BMD gives an incentive to make a first nuclear strike, something never before imaginable owing to the lack of certainty one’s nation would not become nuclear radioactive rubble. In military terms, BMD is offensive, not defensive contrary to the name, and should properly be named Ballistic Missile Offense.
Bowman further notes:
Under Reagan and Bush I, it was called the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO). Under President Clinton, it became the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO). Now Bush II made it the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and has given it the freedom from oversight and audit previously enjoyed only by the black or top secret programs. If Congress doesn’t act soon, this new independent agency may take their essentially unlimited budget and spend it outside of public and Congressional scrutiny on weapons that we won’t know anything about until they’re in space. In theory, then, the space warriors would rule the world, able to destroy any target on earth without warning. Will these new super weapons bring the American people security? Hardly. [20]
Washington’s major deployment of BMD across Asia is a major reason likely for the sudden decision to delay the 18th Party Congress until after the US elections to see whether China faced a President Romney or President Obama. What has materialized in terms of US military decisions in the few months since Obama first proclaimed his Asia Pivot and Obama Doctrine makes clear why China is increasingly nervous about Obama ‘pivots.’
F. William Engdahl is economist and geopolitical analyst. More about his various books and articles can be found on www.williamengdahl.com
(《環球視野globalview.cn》第509期)
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