I think I am the perfect person to answer this. I have been working in the semiconductor industry for years, currently living in the Netherlands, lived and worked in China for 3 years, I know a lot of engineers from ASML (expecially after they hired hundreds of Turkish engineers).
我認為我是回答這個問題的最佳人選。我在半導體行業工作多年，目前生活在荷蘭，在中國生活和工作了3年，我認識很多來自ASML的工程師(特別是他們雇傭了數百名土耳其工程師后)。
Let me tell you something: High-end semiconductor manufacturing is black magic. Both the processes and tools used for it are very complex. ASML’s EUV lithography machine is probably the most complex tool humankind ever developed since it stopped jumping between trees. It took billions of Euros and decades of experience to perfect it. Other experienced lithography machine suppliers failed at it. China has no experience in high-end semiconductor manufacturing tools with the exception of one-off/few-off prototypes.
讓我告訴你:高端半導體制造是一種黑魔法。它所使用的過程和工具都非常復雜。ASML的EUV光刻機可能是人類發明的最復雜的工具，因為它不再在樹之間跳躍。它花費了數十億歐元和幾十年的經驗來完善它。其他經驗豐富的光刻機供應商在這方面失敗了。中國在高端半導體制造工具方面沒有經驗，除了一次性或少量的原型。
ASML’s EUV lithography machine. Needs 41 semi-trucks to get transported, costs $150 million, has 100.000 major parts, has mirrors that need months of grinding to reach needed smoothness, needs multiple people with PhD’s as machine operators. Quite high-tech. Isn’t it?
ASML公司的EUV光刻機。運輸需要41輛半卡車，耗資1.5億美元，有10萬個主要部件，鏡子需要數月的打磨才能達到所需的光滑程度，需要多名擁有博士學位的人作為機器操作員。很高科技。不是嗎?
EUV光刻機
Unfortunately, ASML is a very convenient target for the USA. The company uses a lot of critical parts from the USA but those parts don’t represent anything significant in the US economy in terms of their monetary value. Chinese electronics industry still depends on foreign chips so it can not threaten fabs with banning the sale of chips in China that were manufactured using ASML tools. Also, China isn’t a big customer of ASML too. In short, China can not answer with reciprocal sanctions.
不幸的是，ASML對美國來說是一個非常方便的目標。該公司使用了許多來自美國的關鍵部件，但這些部件的貨幣價值在美國經濟中并不代表任何重要的東西。中國電子行業仍依賴外國芯片，因此無法通過禁止在中國銷售使用ASML工具生產的芯片來威脅晶片廠。此外，中國也不是阿斯麥的大客戶。總之，中國不能以對等制裁作為回應。
Is China hopeless? No.
中國絕望了? 不！
1- All of those tools are engineered and made by humans, and the laws of physics are the same both in the Netherlands and China. If the Netherlands could, then there is no reason for anybody else to fail with the correct approach.
1-所有這些工具都是由人類設計和制造的，而且物理定律在荷蘭和中國都是相同的。如果荷蘭可以，那么其他國家就沒有理由用正確的方法失敗。
2- China is filthy rich compared to the Netherlands. Chinese economy is 17x of the Netherlands’, 9x of SK’s, 27x of Taiwan’s, 3+x of Japan’s. With state support, Chinese fabs and tool makers can hire the top people from the rest of the world with salaries ASML, LamResearch, AM, Synopsys, TSMC, Samsung, … simply can not compete with. A significant portion of these companies’ employees are expats anyway, most of them are just after money.
2、中國比荷蘭富得流油。中國經濟是荷蘭的17倍，SK的9倍，臺灣的27倍，日本的3倍。在國家的支持下，中國的晶圓廠和工具制造商可以用ASML、LamResearch、AM、Synopsys、臺積電、三星等公司無法與之競爭的薪水從世界其他地方雇傭頂尖人才。這些公司的員工中有很大一部分是外國人，他們中的大多數只是為了錢。
In fact China is already doing this successfully with good results. For example, it already has a working EUV lithography machine prototype, already caught up with the rest in chip testing, packaging, wafer production, also its first immersion lithography machine (good enough for most things) is getting prepared for commercial use.
事實上，中國已經成功地做到了這一點，并取得了良好的成果。例如，它已經有了一臺工作中的EUV光刻機原型，在芯片測試、封裝、晶圓生產方面已經趕上了其他公司，同時它的第一臺浸沒式光刻機(對大多數事情來說已經足夠好了)也準備投入商業使用。
3- China is a scientific powerhouse on its own. It is the country with most patent applications, most research output, graduates more STEM students than any other country, 2nd largest R&D spender, has 11 universities in top 100. This leads us to my first point. If the Netherlands could, so can China if given enough time.
中國本身就是一個科學強國。它是專利申請最多、研究產出最多的國家，STEM專業的畢業生比其他任何國家都多，研發支出排名第二，有11所大學進入前100名。這就引出了我的第一點。如果荷蘭可以，那么只要給中國足夠的時間，中國也可以。
4- Catching up is much easier than innovating. Knowing something is possible and having a general knowledge of how it works make things much easier.
趕超比創新容易得多。知道某件事是可能的，并且對它的工作原理有一個大致的了解會讓事情變得容易得多。
5- Time is on the Chinese side. Technology of semiconductors is close to maturity/stalling (choose the word depending on your view). If the development slows (which it does) it gives China the opportunity to catch-up. If a tech revolution happens, then the playing field evens out anyway.
5-時間在中國這邊。半導體技術接近成熟/停滯(根據你的觀點選擇這個詞)。如果發展放緩(確實如此)，中國就有機會迎頭趕上。如果科技革命發生了，那么競爭環境無論如何都是公平的。
6- You don’t need EUV for the most things. You don’t even need high-end processes for the most things. There is more to semiconductors than the latest smartphone processors, GPUs, and CPUs. Look at iPhone 12 teardown videos. You will see a lot of chips. Only one of them needs EUV. An average modern car has 250+ computers inside. That means thousands of chips. All of them are manufactured using old processes. This is even more true for military and space applications. Those use very old chips that are known to be reliable and secure.
6-大多數事情都不需要EUV。大多數事情你甚至不需要高端的流程。半導體不僅僅是最新的智能手機處理器、圖形處理器(gpu)和cpu?？纯磇Phone 12拆卸的視頻。你會看到很多芯片。只有一個需要EUV。一輛普通的現代汽車內部有250臺電腦。這意味著成千上萬的芯片。所有這些都是用舊工藝制造的。在軍事和太空應用方面更是如此。它們使用的是非常老舊的芯片，但已知是可靠和安全的。
Conclusion: Blocking ASML from selling EUV machines to China can hurt Chinese businesses for some time but in the grand scheme it is insignificant. The USA needs to run faster rather than keep trying to block China if it wants to preserve its dominance in tech.
結論:阻止ASML向中國銷售EUV設備可能會在一段時間內傷害中國企業，但從長遠來看，這是微不足道的。如果美國想要保持其在科技領域的主導地位，它需要跑得更快，而不是一直試圖阻止中國。
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